`February Freight Surprise: Tonnage Ticks Up… But Is It Real or Just a Tariff Sugar Rush?

by TRUCKERS VA
(UNITED STATES)

ATA Reports a 3% Bump in Freight Hauls, But Don’t Start Ordering Chrome Yet

Introduction
After months of doomscrolling through freight recession headlines, the trucking world finally caught a whiff of good news: truck tonnage jumped 3% in February 2025, according to the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Their For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose from 111.9 in January to 115.2 in February, and the industry’s been quick to slap a “recovery” sticker on it.

But hold up.

Before we all get misty-eyed and nostalgic for 2018 freight booms and $2.80/mile spot rates, let’s ask the question every driver should be asking:

Is this real momentum… or just front-loaded freight brought in early to dodge tariffs?

Spoiler: it’s the second one. But there’s still plenty to break down.

Key Points
🚚 Freight Is Up — But Not Because Demand Skyrocketed
ATA’s chief economist, Bob Costello, was refreshingly honest in the press release. He straight-up said the tonnage boost came from accelerated imports — shippers rushing to move product into the U.S. before new tariffs kicked in.

That’s like watching a gas station get slammed before a hurricane — it’s activity, but it’s not sustainable.

The trucks were moving, sure. Loads were booked. But it wasn’t because demand magically returned. It was strategic panic disguised as growth.

💸 More Freight Doesn’t Mean More Money
This one stings: more freight doesn’t always equal better rates. In fact, most drivers didn’t feel this bump in their bank accounts.

Plenty of carriers were running heavier, faster, and for the same—or worse—pay. That 3% tonnage spike? A lot of that was cheap freight flooding the market, pushing rates down even while volume ticked up.

As always, big fleets could absorb and scale. But owner-operators and small carriers? They’re still wrestling with razor-thin margins, brutal fuel costs, and deadhead nightmares.

🧾 One-Time Bump or Long-Term Shift?
Industry analysts aren’t popping champagne either. February’s spike was nice — but let’s be honest, we’re coming off a freight recession. A 3% bump in that context is like a warm day in February. Nice, but don’t plant flowers just yet.

Once those tariff-related imports settle, demand could flatten again, especially if consumer spending slows or inventory levels remain bloated.

Multiple Perspectives
Let’s hear what the folks who live this every day are saying:

The Big Fleet Optimist:
“This is a solid indicator that things are stabilizing. We’re cautiously scaling back up and looking to rehire some laid-off drivers.”

The Burned Owner-Op:
“Yeah, I hauled more loads in February. Still barely broke even. They’re flooding the boards with garbage freight and calling it growth.”

The Broker Trying to Spin It:
“Markets are rebounding! It’s a great time to take on more capacity!”
(Translation: Please haul our lowball loads.)

The No-Nonsense Trucker:
“ATA says freight’s up? Cool. Now tell my fuel card that.”

Industry Response
ATA framed it as a positive sign — and fair enough, it’s better than another drop. But even they know this wasn’t organic growth. It was a preemptive logistics move by major shippers.

Still, there’s a chance that this uptick could set the stage for gradual recovery if consumer demand holds and retailers begin restocking more aggressively.

But let’s not kid ourselves. The freight market fundamentals haven’t changed: too many trucks, not enough high-paying freight. Until that balance evens out, it’s going to be a hustle-heavy year.

And we haven’t even talked about fuel, insurance hikes, and the regulatory squeeze coming later this year.

What Drivers Should Be Doing
Here's the real takeaway for drivers: this bump doesn’t mean it's time to relax.

In fact, it’s the perfect time to double down on strategy:

Renegotiate contracts with shippers while you have leverage.

Track your lanes and rates like a hawk.

Diversify your income (side hustles, AI tools, YouTube, etc.)

Cut unnecessary expenses — every dime counts until rates stabilize.

Because if this was a one-month fluke? You don’t want to get caught with higher bills and a dry load board in April.

The Bottom Line
February’s 3% tonnage growth was a nice blip. But that’s all it was: a blip, powered by a tariff-induced freight rush — not a sign of a full recovery.

That means the smart drivers aren’t celebrating. They’re preparing. Because this rollercoaster of freight isn’t over — and 2025 is still full of sharp turns.

You can’t control the market, but you can control how you respond to it.

Call to Action (CTA)
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